Active surveillance of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinomas has gained popularity worldwide as a management strategy. We previously reported that young age was associated with tumor enlargement by ≥3 mm. Here, we used the tumor volume-doubling rate to study the age-related tumor volume dynamics of papillary thyroid microcarcinomas under active surveillance.
Between 2005 and 2019, 2,896 patients diagnosed with low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinomas underwent active surveillance. We excluded patients who underwent ultrasound examination fewer than 4 times, had coexisting Graves’ disease, or were treated with levothyroxine at the time of diagnosis, and we enrolled 2,129 patients for this study. We divided them into 3 subsets based on the age at diagnosis: young (<40 years), middle-aged (40-59 years), and elderly (≥60 years). The tumor volume-doubling rate was calculated based on ultrasound-derived tumor sizes and the respective examination date for each patient.
Overall, 140 patients (6.6%) had moderate or rapid growth (tumor volume-doubling rate ≥0.3/year), and the incidence significantly decreased with advanced age (P < .01): 11.3%, 7.1%, and 5.0% in the young, middle-aged, and elderly groups, respectively. Tumor regression (tumor volume-doubling rate <0/year) was detected in 1,200 patients (56.4%), and the incidence significantly increased with age (P < .01): 44.6%, 55.3%, and 60.0% in the young, middle-aged, and elderly groups, respectively. On multivariate analysis, both the ≥60 years and 40 to 59 years age groups were independent negative predictors of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma enlargement and positive predictors of tumor regression.
Tumor volume-doubling rate analysis demonstrated that the incidence of tumor enlargement decreased and that of tumor regression increased with advancing age in patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinomas.

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